引导还是挤出?——政府引导基金层级异质性研究

引导还是挤出?——政府引导基金层级异质性研究

孙雅婷

(澳门科技大学商学院，中国 澳门，999078)

摘 要:科技创新是现代社会经济发展的不竭动力，科技型初创企业的健康发展离不开以政府引导基金为代表的耐心资本长期稳定的资金投入与政策引导。然而，学术界在政府引导基金能否有效促进企业创新方面的讨论仍存在分歧，且对不同行政层级基金的异质性效应关注不足。本文以2016-2021年间创业板与科创板上市公司为研究对象，采用多时点双向固定效应模型，实证检验政府引导基金对企业研发投入的影响，并重点考察基金行政层级的异质性效应。研究发现:第一，全样本中政府引导基金对企业研发投入无显著平均影响;第二，异质性分析表明，政府引导基金的负向影响主要集中于国家级与省级基金，市级及以下基金则无显著效果。该结论经更换被解释变量、安慰剂检验、排除直辖市样本及异质性稳健DID估计后依然成立。本文的研究贡献在于从基金层级视角揭示了政府引导基金对企业创新的异质性效应，补充了挤出效应的理论文献。基于研究发现，本文提出厘清高层级基金的管理边界、建立尽职免责制度、构建绩效评价体系等政策建议，为优化政府引导基金制度设计、防范潜在资源错配提供了实证依据与政策参考。

关键词:政府引导基金;企业科技创新;异质性处理效应

Crowding-in or Crowding-Out?

——A Study on the Hierarchical Heterogeneity of Government Guidance Funds

Yating Sun

(1.School of Business, Macau University of Science and Technology, Macau, 999078)

Abstract: Technological innovation is an inexhaustible driving force for modern socio-economicdevelopment. The healthy growth of technology-based start-ups relies heavily on the long-term, stablecapital investment and policy guidance of patient capital, of which government guidance funds are aprime example. However, academic debate remains on whether government guidance funds caneffectively promote corporate innovation, and insufficient attention has been paid to the heterogeneouseffects of funds at different administrative levels. This paper empirically examines the impact ofgovernment guidance funds on corporate R&D investment using a staggered two-way fixed effectsmodel with a sample of the Growth Enterprise Market (GEM) and STAR market listed companies from 2016 to 2021, focusing particularly on the heterogeneous effects of fund administrative levels.The findings are as follows: First, in the full sample, government guidance funds have no significantaverage impact on corporate R&D investment. Second, heterogeneity analysis reveals that the negativeimpact of government guidance funds is mainly concentrated in national and provincial-level funds,while municipal-level and lower-level funds show no significant effect. These conclusions remainrobust after a series of checks, including replacing the dependent variable, placebo tests, excludingmunicipalities, and using heterogeneous-robust DID estimation. The contribution of this paper lies inrevealing the heterogeneous effects of government guidance funds on corporate innovation from theperspective of fund hierarchy, thereby supplementing the theoretical literature on crowding-out effects.Based on the findings, this paper proposes policy recommendation, including clarifying themanagement boundaries of high-level funds, establishing an exculpatory liability system, andconstructing a performance evaluation system. These provide empirical evidence and policy referencesfor optimizing the institutional design of government guidance funds and preventing potential resourcemisallocation.

Keywords: Government Guidance Funds; Corporate Technological Innovation; Heterogeneous Treatment Effects

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