金融博弈视阈下我国加密资产政策分析框架研究--兼论粤港澳大湾区的战略路径选择

金融博弈视阈下我国加密资产政策分析框架研究--兼论粤港澳大湾区的战略路径选择

A Framework of Analysis of Crypto Asset Related Policy in China from aPerspective of Global Financial CompetitionOn The Strategic Choices of Greater Bay Area

作者：李凯(深圳职业技术大学经济学院，广东深圳，518000)

摘 要：本文从大国金融博弈的视角，提出一个以法治体为单元分析加密资产政策的分析框架，并基于此框架讨论粤港澳大湾区的战略价值和协同空间。该框架包括监管法治及政策目标创新容忍度，金融消费者成熟度，金融数据集中度信息透明度，区域信息技术成熟度，金融产业新进者进入壁垒，金融科技人才友好度等维度。分析发现，创新容忍度弱和金融消费者成熟度低两个因素决定了粤港澳大湾区内地9市加密资产政策将以严格监管为基调，创新空间不大。香港有较高的监管政策创新容忍度，但需提高政策稳定性和可预期性，区域信息技术成熟度和金融科技人才友好度是更加严峻的挑战，而最不利的因素则是金融产业新进者进入壁垒。澳门可以通过立法为加密资产产业发展创造创新空间;较小的本澳居民数量和较高的居民收入也是有利的支撑条件，更低的金融产业进入难度则可以有效弥补香港的不足。

关键词：金融博弈;加密资产;粤港澳大湾区;政策框架，创新生态

Abstract:From the perspective of major-power financial competition, this paper proposes ananalytical framework for examining crypto-asset policies with jurisdictional entities as the unit ofanalysis. Based on this framework, the strategic value and potential for synergy within theGuangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area are discussed. The framework encompasses dimensions such as regulatory legal systems and policy innovation tolerance, financial consumersophistication, financial data concentration and information transparency, regional informationtechnology maturity, barriers to entry for new financial industry participants, and fintech talentattractiveness. The analysis reveals that weak innovation tolerance and low financial consumersophistication determine that crypto-asset policies in the nine mainland cities of the Greater BayArea will be strictly regulated, with limited room for innovation. Hong Kong exhibits higherpolicy innovation tolerance but needs to enhance policy stability and predictability. Regionalinformation technology maturity and fintech talent attractiveness pose more severe challenges,while the most unfavorable factor is the high barrier to entry for new financial industryparticipants. Macao can create room for innovation in crypto-asset industry development throughlegislation; its relatively small local population and high resident income serve as favorablesupporting conditions, while its lower barriers to entry in the financial industry can effectivelycompensate for Hong Kong's shortcomings.

Keywords:Crypto Asset; Financial Regulation; Guangdong Hongkong Macau Greater Bay Area;Policy Framework; Innovation Ecosystem

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